A Different COVID-19 Graph (updated and revised)
The argument that the late response of other countries was the result of China under-reporting the extent of its epidemic doesn’t hold water. Even China’s reported numbers had hit almost 60,000 cases on February 14 when the United States had 13 — so there was ample notice that it was a very serious situation and there was ample time for the U.S. to take action (and plenty of people calling for taking the situation seriously). China was being accused from the beginning of underreporting, which should have accentuated the concern. Although there are questions about the real numbers of cases and deaths in China, no one credible has contested that its aggressive actions have lead to a dramatic reduction in new cases by late February.
One reason for confusion regarding when countries knew of the extent of the COVID-19 threat is that the most widely used graphical representations comparing different countries’ COVID-19 paths start at a point in time for each country when the virus started to spread, at the 100th confirmed case for example, and compare countries’ paths from that point. But the United States, among other countries, had its 100th confirmed case much later than other countries and had the opportunity to learn from them. As the graph below shows, by March 3, the day when the U.S. reached its 100th confirmed case, it had been about two weeks since large numbers of new cases had last appeared in China. South Korea turned its corner before the U.S. confirmed its 500th case. Additional countries had fended off the worst before the crisis hit the United States. These countries offered a blueprint for others of testing, isolation, hygiene and expanding medical infrastructure. There was another country that also offered a lesson: Italy. It had hit its 100th case 10 days before the U.S. and had not quickly taken strong action — and its situation was deteriorating.
The charts that normalize the path of the epidemics in different countries leave the impression that every country started at the same point. Not so. The United States and other countries that had the opportunity of seeing what had happened in other countries have no excuse for not being ahead of the game.
