A Different COVID-19 Graph
(AN UPDATED AND REVISED VERSION OF THIS STORY HAS BEEN PUBLISHED)
The most widely used graphical representations comparing different countries’ COVID-19 paths cloak the fact that some countries had more lead time to identify the best response and take preventative action. The graphs start at a point in time for each country when the virus started to spread, at the 100th confirmed case for example, and compare countries’ paths from that point. But the United States, among other countries, had its 100th confirmed case much later than other countries and had the opportunity to learn from them. As the graph below shows, by March 3, the day when the U.S. reached its 100th confirmed case, it had been about two weeks since large numbers of new cases had appeared in China. South Korea turned its corner before the U.S. confirmed its 500th case. Additional countries had fended off the worst before the crisis hit the United States. These countries offered a blueprint for others of testing, isolation, hygiene and expanding medical infrastructure. There was another country that also offered a lesson: Italy. It had hit its 100th case 10 days before the U.S. and had not quickly taken strong action— and its situation was deteriorating.
The charts that normalize the path of the epidemics in different countries leave the impression that every country started at the same point. Not so. The United States and other countries that had the opportunity of seeing what had happened in other countries have no excuse for not being ahead of the game.
